An investigation into machine learning approaches for forecasting spatio-temporal demand in ride-hailing service

In this paper, we present machine learning approaches for characterizing and forecasting the short-term demand for on-demand ride-hailing services. We propose the spatio-temporal estimation of the demand that is a function of variable effects related to traffic, pricing and weather conditions. With respect to the methodology, a single decision tree, bootstrap-aggregated (bagged) decision trees, random forest, boosted decision trees, and artificial neural network for regression have been adapted and systematically compared using various statistics, e.g. R-square, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and slope. To better assess the quality of the models, they have been tested on a real case study using the data of DiDi Chuxing, the main on-demand ride-hailing service provider in China. In the current study, 199,584 time-slots describing the spatio-temporal ride-hailing demand has been extracted with an aggregated-time interval of 10 mins. All the methods are trained and validated on the basis of two independent samples from this dataset. The results revealed that boosted decision trees provide the best prediction accuracy (RMSE=16.41), while avoiding the risk of over-fitting, followed by artificial neural network (20.09), random forest (23.50), bagged decision trees (24.29) and single decision tree (33.55). ∗Currently under review for publication †Local Environment Management & Analysis (LEMA), Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering (UEE), University of Liège, Allée de la Découverte 9, Quartier Polytech 1, Liège, Belgium, Email: [email protected] ‡Laboratory of Innovations in Transportation (LITrans), Department of Civil, Geotechnical, and Mining Engineering, Polytechnique Montréal, Montréal, Canada, Email: [email protected] §Laboratory of Innovations in Transportation (LITrans), Department of Civil, Geotechnical, and Mining Engineering, Polytechnique Montréal, Montréal, Canada, Email: [email protected] ¶Local Environment Management & Analysis (LEMA), Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering (UEE), University of Liège, Allée de la Découverte 9, Quartier Polytech 1, Liège, Belgium ‖Local Environment Management & Analysis (LEMA), Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering (UEE), University of Liège, Allée de la Découverte 9, Quartier Polytech 1, Liège, Belgium ar X iv :1 70 3. 02 43 3v 1 [ cs .L G ] 7 M ar 2 01 7